Pair #8053

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ABHA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13832

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

Rules

If Akshay Bhatia wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-AKB

The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 57511

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:47Z

Reasoning: Winning a major could be at a tournament other than The Masters. Winning The Masters would imply top 5 there, but winning another major would not. No guaranteed implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -10.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -15.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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