Pair #8051

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ABHA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13832

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

Rules

If Akshay Bhatia wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-ABHA

The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 15703

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1600
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Akshay Bhatia has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:47Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at a major other than The Masters, in which case making the cut at The Masters is not implied. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -64.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8500
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -69.26% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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