Pair #8050

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ABHA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13832

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

Rules

If Akshay Bhatia wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-AKB

The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 133212

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:47Z

Reasoning: Winning a major could be at a tournament other than The Masters. Even winning The Masters would imply top 20 there, but winning a different major would not. No guaranteed direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -40.21% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -44.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue