Pair #8049

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ABHA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13832

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-ABHA

The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 568

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:47Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be any of the 4 majors, not necessarily The Masters. And even winning The Masters doesn't require a top 5 Round 1 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -9.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -13.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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