Pair #8048

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-ABHA

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2896

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-AKB

The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 57511

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:47Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors requires top 10 at The Masters, but not necessarily top 5. And finishing top 5 at The Masters doesn't guarantee top 10 in all 4 majors. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -55.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -59.66% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue