Pair #8047

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-ABHA

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2896

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-ABHA

The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4989

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:47Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors (overall tournament results) does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 of The Masters specifically. And finishing top 10 in Round 1 of The Masters does not guarantee finishing top 10 in all 4 majors overall. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -82.75% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -86.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue