Pair #8045

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-ABHA

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2896

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-AKB

The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 133212

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:25Z

Reasoning: If Bhatia finishes top 10 in all 4 majors, he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters, which is within the top 20. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 at the Masters alone does not satisfy the all-4-majors top 10 condition.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -88.20% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3800
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -92.41% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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