Pair #8044

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-ABHA

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2896

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-ABHA

The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 568

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:25Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors concerns final tournament standings, not individual round standings. No logical necessity between finishing top 10 in all majors and finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Masters.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -42.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -47.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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