Pair #8038

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-CAME

Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 586229

YES ask: 0.0310
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0310

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Young is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-CAME

The Masters: Will Cameron Young finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2908

YES ask: 0.4800
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.4800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Young finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:25Z

Reasoning: If Cameron Young leads after Round 1, he is by definition in 1st place, which is within the top 20. The reverse does not hold — being top 20 in Round 1 does not mean he leads.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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