Pair #8034

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CYOU

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 65874

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-CAME

The Masters: Will Cameron Young finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2908

YES ask: 0.4800
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.4800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:03Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at any of the four majors, not necessarily the Masters, so it does not imply finishing top 20 in Masters R1. And finishing top 20 in Masters R1 does not imply winning any major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -41.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -45.98% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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