Pair #8030

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10931

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 14154

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:03Z

Reasoning: If Aberg finishes top 10 in Round 1, he necessarily also finishes top 20 in Round 1. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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