Pair #8025

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 708893

YES ask: 0.0480
NO ask: 0.9640
Last: 0.0450

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 14154

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:03Z

Reasoning: If Aberg leads after Round 1, he is #1, which necessarily places him in the top 20. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4940
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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