Pair #8024

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 708893

YES ask: 0.0480
NO ask: 0.9640
Last: 0.0450

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10931

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:03Z

Reasoning: If Aberg leads after Round 1, he is #1 on the leaderboard, which means he is necessarily in the top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not mean leading.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2940
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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