Pair #8023

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 708893

YES ask: 0.0480
NO ask: 0.9640
Last: 0.0450

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 29278

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:23:03Z

Reasoning: If Aberg leads after Round 1, he has completed Round 1 and will play Round 2. The Masters cut is made after Round 2, so leading after R1 does not guarantee making the cut — he still must play R2. However, leading R1 does not logically necessitate making the cut. Conversely, making the cut does not imply leading R1. Actually: leading R1 does NOT guarantee making the cut (could shoot poorly in R2). No implication holds in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8340
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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