Pair #8020

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4732

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10931

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:22:37Z

Reasoning: If Aberg finishes top 5 in Round 1, he is necessarily also top 10 in Round 1. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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