Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-LABE
The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4732
YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-LABE
The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10931
YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.3100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:22:37Z
Reasoning: If Aberg finishes top 5 in Round 1, he is necessarily also top 10 in Round 1. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not guarantee top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A