Pair #8018

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 708893

YES ask: 0.0480
NO ask: 0.9640
Last: 0.0450

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4732

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:22:37Z

Reasoning: If Aberg leads after Round 1, he is in 1st place, which is necessarily top 5. However, finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not require leading (he could be 2nd-5th).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1540
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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