Pair #8004

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-LABE

Masters Tournament: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 351368

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.5800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 29278

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:22:18Z

Reasoning: To finish top 20 in the tournament, Aberg must complete all rounds, which requires making the cut. Making the cut is a necessary condition for finishing in the top 20. The reverse does not hold — making the cut doesn't guarantee a top-20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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