Pair #8002

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21667

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 26533

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:22:18Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not necessitate being the top European at The Masters (could win a different major, or win The Masters but another European could tie/beat their total — though winning The Masters would make them top European, another European winning is impossible if Aberg wins). Actually if Aberg wins The Masters he is top European, but he could win a different major. And being top European at The Masters doesn't mean winning a major. No clean implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 11.19% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9400
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +6.90% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue