Pair #8001

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21667

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 14154

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:22:18Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require finishing top 20 in R1 of The Masters (could win a different major, or win The Masters from outside the top 20 after R1). No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -47.56% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -51.84% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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