Pair #8000

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21667

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10931

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:22:18Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 of The Masters (could win a different major, or even win The Masters without a top-10 R1). Finishing top 10 in R1 of The Masters does not necessitate winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -32.70% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -36.98% BELOW HURDLE

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