Pair #8

Antecedent (implies)

KXFOWOMEN-26-OSA

Will Naomi Osaka win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Naomi Osaka
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1177

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Naomi Osaka wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-NOSA

Will Naomi Osaka win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Naomi Osaka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2051

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naomi Osaka wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:30Z

Reasoning: If Osaka wins the French Open, she has won a Grand Slam. The reverse does not hold — she could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -18.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: 85
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -23.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-16T23:07:08Z

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