Pair #7998

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21667

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4732

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:21:57Z

Reasoning: Winning any major in 2026 does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Masters specifically — Aberg could win a different major or win the Masters without a top 5 Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -17.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -21.93% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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