Pair #7997

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-LABE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 6209

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 26533

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:21:57Z

Reasoning: If Aberg finishes top 10 overall at the Masters, he would have the lowest strokes among Europeans only if no other European finishes above him. This is not logically necessary — another European could finish higher (e.g., top 5) while Aberg is top 10. No guaranteed implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -4.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue