Pair #7996

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-LABE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 6209

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 14154

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:21:57Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall in the Masters does not necessitate finishing top 20 after Round 1 — a player could start poorly and still finish top 10 overall. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -93.79% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5200
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -98.00% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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