Pair #7995

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-LABE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 6209

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10931

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:21:57Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the overall Masters tournament does not require finishing top 10 after Round 1 specifically. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -90.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3200
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -94.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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