Pair #7994

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-LABE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 6209

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-LABE

The Masters: Will Ludvig Aberg make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 29278

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:21:57Z

Reasoning: If Aberg finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including the Masters, he necessarily made the cut at the Masters (you cannot finish top 10 overall without playing all four rounds). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.25% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8600
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -102.46% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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