Pair #7980

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SES

The Masters: Will Sepp Straka finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 9955

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sepp Straka finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SES

The Masters: Will Sepp Straka finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 35001

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sepp Straka finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:21:35Z

Reasoning: Top 5 is a subset of top 20. If Straka finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse is not true — a top 20 finish does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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