Pair #7973

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SES

The Masters: Will Sepp Straka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 16066

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sepp Straka finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SES

The Masters: Will Sepp Straka finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 35001

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sepp Straka finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:21:16Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold: finishing top 20 does not require finishing top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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