Pair #7972

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSTRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6689

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sepp Straka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-SSTR

Will Sepp Straka finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 2947

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sepp Straka records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:21:16Z

Reasoning: Straka could win a different major and not be the top European at the Masters. Being the top European at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.73% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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