Pair #7970

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSTRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6689

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sepp Straka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-SSTR

The Masters: Will Sepp Straka make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 1398

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.9800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sepp Straka has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:21:16Z

Reasoning: Straka could win a different major (not the Masters) and still miss the cut at the Masters. Making the cut at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -65.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -69.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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