Pair #7969

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSTRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6689

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sepp Straka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-SSTR

Will Sepp Straka lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 109272

YES ask: 0.0180
NO ask: 0.9880
Last: 0.0180

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sepp Straka is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:21:16Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at a different major entirely, with no connection to Round 1 of the Masters. Leading Round 1 of the Masters does not imply winning any major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.34% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9980
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -3.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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