Pair #7968

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSTRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6689

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

Rules

If Sepp Straka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SES

The Masters: Will Sepp Straka finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 35001

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sepp Straka finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:21:16Z

Reasoning: Straka could win a different major and not finish top 20 at the Masters. Finishing top 20 at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -37.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -41.32% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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