Pair #7967

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSTRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6689

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sepp Straka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SES

The Masters: Will Sepp Straka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 16066

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sepp Straka finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:21:16Z

Reasoning: Straka could win a different major (PGA Championship, US Open, The Open) and still not finish top 10 at the Masters. Finishing top 10 at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -9.46% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -13.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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