Pair #7941

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-BDEC

Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1136276

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9580
Last: 0.0510

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bryson DeChambeau is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-BDEC

The Masters: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 37987

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:20:33Z

Reasoning: If DeChambeau leads after Round 1, he is by definition in the top position, which is within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not mean he is the leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3280
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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