Pair #794

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-AEWA

Valspar Championship: Will A.J. Ewart finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: A.J. Ewart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3643

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If A.J. Ewart finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-AEWA

Valspar Championship: Will A.J. Ewart finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: A.J. Ewart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12429

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If A.J. Ewart finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:09:39Z

Reasoning: If Ewart finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well (top 10 is a subset of top 20). Finishing top 20 does not imply finishing top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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