Pair #793

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-AEWA

Valspar Championship: Will A.J. Ewart finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: A.J. Ewart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12429

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If A.J. Ewart finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-AEWA

Valspar Championship: Will A.J. Ewart make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: A.J. Ewart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1378

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If A.J. Ewart makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:09:39Z

Reasoning: If Ewart finishes top 20, he must have made the cut to play the weekend rounds and achieve that finish. Making the cut does not imply finishing top 20.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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