Pair #7926

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-BDEC

Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1136276

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9580
Last: 0.0510

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bryson DeChambeau is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-BDEC

The Masters: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12777

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:19:50Z

Reasoning: If DeChambeau leads after Round 1, he must be in the top 5 (the leader is by definition 1st, which is within the top 5). However, finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not require being the outright leader — he could be tied for 2nd through 5th.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1680
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue