Pair #792

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-AEWA

Will A.J. Ewart win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: A.J. Ewart
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22274

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If A.J. Ewart wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-AEWA

Valspar Championship: Will A.J. Ewart finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: A.J. Ewart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12429

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If A.J. Ewart finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:09:16Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily inside the top 20. A top 20 finish does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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