Pair #7919

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-BDEC

Masters Tournament: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 224449

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-BDEC

The Masters: Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 62423

YES ask: 0.6500
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:19:50Z

Reasoning: If DeChambeau finishes top 5 in the overall tournament, he must have made the cut — you cannot finish in the top 5 without completing all four rounds, which requires making the cut. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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