Pair #7900

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BDEC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28452

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-BDEC

Will Bryson DeChambeau finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 26347

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:19:06Z

Reasoning: Winning a major could be at a non-Masters event, so top US golfer at the Masters is not required. Even winning the Masters does not logically require being the top US golfer (a non-US golfer could be second and DeChambeau wins, but another US golfer could outscore him — wait, if he wins he IS the top US golfer at the Masters). However, winning could still be at a different major. And being top US golfer at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 5.33% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +1.05% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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