Pair #79

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNBA-26-DEN

Will the Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?

Series: KXNBA
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 8156281

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

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Rules

If Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNBAPLAYOFF-26-DEN

Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers Winner?

Series: KXNBAPLAYOFF
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-18T14:00:00Z
Volume: 23009

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver is one of the Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:00:50Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: To win the NBA Finals, Denver must have made the playoffs. So if KXNBA-26-DEN resolves YES, KXNBAPLAYOFF-26-DEN must also resolve YES. The reverse does not hold: making the playoffs does not guarantee winning the Finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): N/A
Cost: $1.9700 + ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:34:47Z

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