KXNBA-26-DEN
Will the Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?
Series: KXNBA
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 8156281
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400
Pair #79
KXNBAPLAYOFF-26-DEN
Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers Winner?
Series: KXNBAPLAYOFF
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-18T14:00:00Z
Volume: 23009
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9800
Rules
If Denver is one of the Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:00:50Z
Reasoning: To win the NBA Finals, Denver must have made the playoffs. So if KXNBA-26-DEN resolves YES, KXNBAPLAYOFF-26-DEN must also resolve YES. The reverse does not hold: making the playoffs does not guarantee winning the Finals.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-99.97%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.9700
Days to maturity:
30
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-104.19%
BELOW HURDLE
Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:34:47Z