Pair #7899

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BDEC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28452

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26LIV-BDEC

Will Bryson DeChambeau finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 142476

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:19:06Z

Reasoning: Winning a major could be at a non-Masters event. Even winning the Masters does not require being the top LIV golfer there if no other LIV golfers complete the tournament (edge case), but more importantly winning a different major is entirely compatible with not being top LIV at the Masters. And being top LIV golfer at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -26.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -31.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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