Pair #7896

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BDEC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28452

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-BDEC

The Masters: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 37987

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:19:06Z

Reasoning: Winning a major could happen at a non-Masters event, and even winning the Masters does not require a top-10 Round 1. A top-10 Round 1 at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -37.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -41.32% BELOW HURDLE

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