Pair #7895

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BDEC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28452

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-BDEC

The Masters: Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 62423

YES ask: 0.6500
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:19:06Z

Reasoning: Winning a major could be at any of the four majors other than the Masters, so missing the Masters cut is still compatible with winning a different major. Making the Masters cut does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -54.66% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -58.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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