Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BDEC
Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?
Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28452
YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Bryson DeChambeau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR2LEAD-MAST26-BDEC
Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Masters?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 20309
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Bryson DeChambeau is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:19:06Z
Reasoning: Winning a major could be at a non-Masters event, and even winning the Masters does not require leading after Round 2. Leading after Round 2 at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
9.19%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9500
Days to maturity:
213
Hurdle yield:
4.28%
Excess yield:
+4.91%
PROFITABLE