Pair #7893

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BDEC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28452

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-BDEC

The Masters: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12777

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:19:06Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at any of the four majors and does not require a top-5 Round 1 at the Masters specifically. And finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -21.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -25.58% BELOW HURDLE

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