Pair #7892

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BDEC

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 8434

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-BDEC

Will Bryson DeChambeau finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 26347

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:19:06Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require being the top US golfer at the Masters (another US golfer could outscore him while he still finishes top 10). And being the top US golfer at the Masters does not require finishing top 10 in all 4 majors. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -17.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -22.02% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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