Pair #789

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-AHAD

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Hadwin make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 643

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Hadwin makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-AHAD

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Hadwin finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2314

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Hadwin finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:09:16Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and a top 10 finish implies making the cut but not vice versa. Wait — top 10 does imply making the cut, so there is an implication: top 10 → made cut.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue