Pair #7889

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BDEC

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 8434

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-BDEC

The Masters: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 28032

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:18:43Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall in the Masters does not require finishing top 20 in Round 1. Players can be well outside the top 20 after Round 1 and still finish top 10 overall. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.24% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6100
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -102.43% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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