Pair #7886

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BDEC

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 8434

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-MAST26-BDEC

Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 20309

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:18:43Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require leading after Round 2 of the Masters. Leading after Round 2 also does not guarantee a top-10 finish at the Masters or the other majors. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -6.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -10.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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